Where does the ‘wise crowd’ come from?

Wise Crowds make it possible to instantly engage a small or large group of people in helping one another.

Probably most people have heard about the ‘wisdom of crowds’ – the idea that a crowd of people is collectively smarter than any single expert. But where it does it come from? Probably the closest we have to an origin story is the one told by writer James Surowiecki in his 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds.

Surowiecki relates how scientist Francis Galton observed a crowd at an agricultural fair buying tickets in a competition to guess the weight of a fat ox. This was 1906. Galton was a eugenicist and no lover of crowds. Nevertheless, he collected all the guesses made by the crowd and analysed them statistically. Surowiecki writes: ‘Galton undoubtedly thought that the average guess of the group would be way off the mark. After all, mix a few very smart people with some mediocre people and a lot of dumb people, and it seems likely you’d end up with a dumb answer. But Galton was wrong. The crowd had guessed that the ox, after it had been slaughtered and dressed, would weigh 1,197 pounds. After it had been slaughtered and dressed, the ox weighed 1,198 pounds. In other words, the crowd’s judgment was essentially perfect.’

So there it is. The first recorded statistical confirmation of the wise crowd effect. Surowiecki’s book is an excellent introduction to the topic.